UFC 100: THE HEAVYWEIGHTS
GUERRILLAFIGHT - 7.04.09
The heavyweight title fight is indeed an intriguing rematch as Las Vegas Combat Club's Frank Mir battles Minnesota Martial Arts monster Brock Lesnar. It is interesting to note that the MMA world rankings lists Mir as the #3 heavy and Lesnar #7 as Brock has beaten the #5 (Couture) and is a solid -220 favorite across numerous Vegas lines. The money has obviously disregarded both the prior outcome and the ranking ladder.
The keys to a Mir victory are bounteous while Lesnar's game plan appears simple and resembles the old Green Bay Packer power sweep as he will attempt to assert his size, brute strength, and athleticism to control the top and pummel Mir as he unleashes hammer fists that would make a carpenter jealous. Mir must counter with his world class JJ skills and transition effectively. He needs his top cardio fitness level to remain dangerous and seize any small advantage with superior submission techniques to throw a lock on Brock.
Mir is known to be a fight professor as he was remarkably proficient with his stand up striking and game plan against a heavily favored Nogueira in his last visit inside the cage. I suggest he review the Herring match in which Lesnar manhandled the Texas crazy horse. He also needs to flow like water during scrambles and avoid the type of punishment he took in his attempt at leg locks and heel hooks in the Freeman fight. Simply, he needs to assert himself mentally, and use his experience and tactical wisdom to give Lesnar threats from all angles while avoiding dangerous positions.
The MMA purists seem to love to hate Lesnar yet the line is telling you who the action is on. There is no way this one goes the distance and while it’s tough to bet against fighters greater than 2 to 1 favorites I'm going out on an arm-barred limb to pick the upset here as Mir the underdog submits the mammoth Viking midway thru round three.
- J.Seijas/GueRRillaFight.com
Well written opinion, but frankly- Mir has little chance. Lesnar is often written off as a talentless freak of nature, but his NCAA titles and incredible speed and agility are just as impressive as his 280-pound frame. He was a rookie going up against a former champion in Mir the first time around, and still almost won. SOme would say that Mazzagatti cost him that victory more than anyone else in the cage. He is now a veteran of a one-sided ass-kicking he delivered to Heath Herring, and a tactical battle he waged with Randy. He isn't all spastic flurries anymore. Mir had better work on his takedowns and get something done fast. He has no chance standing up, and virtually no chance of taking it to the ground. Brock will determine how and where this fight goes down, and barring a complete mental breakdown, takes this in relatively easy fashion. Brock: early TKO or 5-round UD.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Melissa ... Brock will destroy Mir within the first 2 minutes
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